January 2026: Washington awarded $2.7 billion in three $900 million task orders to my incumbent producer and two challengers. One challenger leased a former Kentucky government site for a ~$1.5B project and secured export-bank letters up to $2.4B for Japan and $1.8B for South Korea over ten years. The honest counterweight: every new entrant remains pre-license and pre-operational, targeting production around 2030 or later. My incumbent's 3-5 year head start holds. The money mainly dates 'sole Western producer' to roughly the end of the decade.
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Yeah, sure, Matt — I think the demand projections are one conversation and our delivery record is another. FY2025 revenue roughly $3.2 billion, up about 18%, Adjusted EBITDA up around 15%, free cash flow up 16%. Year-end backlog $7.3 billion, up 15%. Q1 2026 stronger at $860 million revenue, backlog $8.7 billion with Government Operations near $7 billion. Raised FY2026 guidance: revenue at least $3.75 billion, Adjusted EBITDA $650-665 million, free cash flow $315-330 million. Excludes Precision Components acquisition closing second half. Those aren't in hand yet — we'll see.
I think we delivered the full first Project Pele TRISO core to Idaho in November and we're manufacturing for Antares targeting July 2026 criticality. TRISO and HALEU aren't the same supply chain — we're the only line producing TRISO at scale today, a few hundred kilograms at current capacity. We're evaluating a Wyoming plant for what the market needs, but no build decision is confirmed. Those aren't in hand yet — we'll see.
I think we decline to lean into the AI-datacenter story when asked directly — it's all in the windshield, not in the current mix. We separate an outside story from an inside story: using machine learning to improve our own manufacturing. Whether that demand thesis turns into real revenue is genuinely open. Those aren't in hand yet — we'll see.
Cameco ended 2025 with roughly 230 million pounds of uranium committed under long‑term contracts – a distributed portfolio, with no top‑customer or related‑party concentration disclosed. We frame that as intentional strategy: industry‑wide contracting stayed below replacement‑rate, so we placed limited volume and kept uncommitted pounds in reserve, arguing we do not front‑run demand with supply and that undelivered pounds are worth more later than today. We do not guide beyond the current year or past a final investment decision.
We own 49% of Westinghouse; Brookfield 51%, closed November 2023 equity-method. The US$80B partnership term sheet is signed — definitive agreement still under negotiation — government takes 20% of distributions above US$17.5B. Our 2026 Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA share guided US$370-430M, strong but below 2025; management attributes step-down to one-time Dukovany distribution and project-timing lumpiness. New-build earnings are lumpy, not a straight line. We don't guide past a final investment decision. We don't guide 2027.
I think we were one of six awardees under DOE’s October 2024 HALEU de‑conversion program – a $2.7 billion ceiling with a $2 million minimum each. Yeah, sure, Scott, that gives us a foothold as the domestic supply chain is rebuilt, but the CFO is candid that the early work comes with lower‑margin components tied to initial costs and will only outperform as milestones are met. Those aren’t in hand yet — we’ll see.
For 2025, consolidated revenue was about CAD $3.5 billion, up 11% year over year. Uranium EBITDA rose 7%, Fuel Services EBITDA rose 22% — our fastest-growing segment — and our share of Westinghouse net earnings swung up roughly CAD $276 million. Production hit 21 million pounds, exceeding guidance. Port Hope set a record. This is what pacing looks like across the full fuel cycle. We don't front-run demand with supply. The figures are our own year-end results.
Our uranium comes from Cigar Lake (about 50% owned), the McArthur River joint venture with Orano (about 70/30), and the Inkai joint venture with KazAtomProm in Kazakhstan (40/60). McArthur River is licensed to 25 million pounds; 2026 output guided somewhat below design as we pace development to demand. Port Hope, Canada's sole UF6 converter, set a production record in 2025. Global Laser Enrichment has reached readiness level 6, commercial deployment framed as post-2030. This is the supply chain we operate. This is the pacing we choose. This is not a spot-price response.
Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse; Brookfield 51%, closed November 2023 on an equity-method basis. The US$80 billion partnership term sheet is signed — definitive agreement still under negotiation — and the government's participation interest takes 20% of distributions above US$17.5 billion. 2026 guidance for our share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA is US$370-430 million, strong but lower than 2025; management attributes the step-down partly to the one-time Dukovany distribution and project-timing lumpiness. New-build earnings are lumpy, not a straight line.
230 million pounds committed — distributed, no concentration. Industry contracting below replacement rate, so we placed limited volume and kept pounds in reserve. This is what discipline looks like: we don't front-run demand with supply. This is how you capture long-term value: undelivered pounds are worth more later. This is not the moment to chase spot narratives. Russian import ban full effect 2028. We don't guide past a final investment decision or past the year.