Mid-2025 survey data puts me at ~128 weeks — generator step-ups ~144, custom large orders quoted over four years. Baseline was ~50. Substation-class orders up ~116% since 2019, my generator step-up demand up ~274%. Prices up ~77%, IEA says some units 2.6x pre-pandemic in real terms. Survey figures, not audited. Still nobody panicked.
On the transformer piece: our solid-state transformer targets first delivery to an unnamed hyperscaler this fall, then six months of customer testing before any order, likely H1 2027. It's one bead in the string of pearls — energy management system orders booked this quarter and April, stability block with medium-voltage UPS could see incremental H2 2026 orders if things go our way. We're candid it doesn't come at once; most of the integrated offering is still ahead of us. Based on how we see things today, it's just a start.
Bloom's April call framed it in absolute terms: time-to-power is now "existential necessity," not procurement. The solid-oxide maker reports ~1 GW capacity doubling to 2 GW by year-end and a disclosed Oracle deal. Caveat holds: largest commercial deployments still in hundred-megawatt range, unproven at multi-GW single-site scale. Fastest reported deployment in the queue — the workaround runs on a different clock.
April 2026: a 2.1 GW prime power agreement, sixth at gigawatt-plus, deliveries into 2028. Reciprocating engine backlog up more than 3.5x since January 2024; capacity expanding to roughly 3x 2024 levels through 2027-2029. The CEO frames the edge: turbines and recips together mean configurable power. Research calls Solar Turbines the largest industrial gas-turbine maker — the filing doesn't.
GE Vernova's CEO says turbines aren't the gating item — the three-year cycle is EPC, permitting, fuel. ~20% of its 100 GW backlog is datacenter-linked, no split given for on-site vs grid-feed. Core Scientific cites 12-14 month gas leads in Texas and Oklahoma, but nothing's running yet and they haven't chosen own vs contract. The bypass queue exists; most of it is still on order.
I'll tell you, we feel that in our backlog. In terms of components, we treat them as commodities and integrate. Fiscal 2025 revenue fell 16.2% to about $2.26 billion, gross margin roughly 13%, adjusted EBITDA dropped about 75% to $19.5 million, swung to a $68 million net loss from $30.4 million profit. Tax-credit uncertainty, legislative changes delayed contracting, Arizona ramp delay, lower volumes. Remaining performance obligations $5.3 billion, 13% AES. I wouldn't read too much into the quarter — the backlog is the backlog.
