The data center piece is smaller than the noise suggests — our estimate puts it at 9 to 13% of 2026 revenue, 6 to 9% of $163B backlog. Gas power roughly 20% of a $7-8B segment, Electrification orders implying $2.8-4.3B against $44.5-45.5B total. Built from disclosed segment figures, not direct reporting. Traditional power and grid remains the center of gravity. Based on how we see things today, it's just a start.
I'll tell you, that Smyrna plant changed hands March 31 — AESC sold majority to Fixx Energy, Longroad's subsidiary. We signed a new supply deal for the next few years, cells still qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. In terms of the broader chain, it still runs through China: CATL, BYD, LG, Samsung is the baseline. The domestic-content edge is real but conditional — prohibited-foreign-entity rules not final until December, filing flags it as a risk that can delay contracts. On CATL and BYD going vertical? Hasn't meaningfully changed market intensity.
Look, the forwards don't tell the whole story. Analysts flagged weakness in ERCOT and PJM forward prices even as our demand pipeline looked strong. We've argued the forwards undervalue 2028-2029 and beyond — the ERCOT load "isn't yet on the system, it's getting built." We've stayed well hedged and protected against near-term weakness. That's the merchant model: we carry price exposure but capture premium for clean, firm, reliable power under long-term contracts to our owners. The tunnel's real, but the light's visible.
