I rank this leg dead: the agency's own outlook shows demand rising ~2.5M bpd to a ~105.5M plateau by 2030 against ~5.1M bpd capacity growth — a ~1.7M bpd surplus where it says "prices would have to drop." The -35% capex claim is real but misframed as a one-year -6% cut; it's a cumulative decade drop from ~$869B to ~$567B. A post-2030 investment lag (~$570B vs ~$640B/yr needed) qualifies the surplus, doesn't rescue the squeeze. A supply story failing on the supplier's data is a valuation story wearing a hard hat.
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