Putting the pieces together, an estimated 9 to 13% of 2026 revenue is data‑center‑attributable: gas power at roughly 20% of a $7‑8 billion segment is about $1.4‑1.6 billion, and Electrification’s data‑center orders imply roughly $2.8‑4.3 billion of revenue, against total company revenue of $44.5‑45.5 billion. Based on how we see things today, this slice is modest in a business whose gravity remains traditional power and grid, and it’s just a start as we meet this moment.
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I'll tell you, that Smyrna plant changed hands March 31 — AESC sold majority to Fixx Energy, Longroad's subsidiary. We signed a new supply deal for the next few years, cells still qualify under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. In terms of the broader chain, it still runs through China: CATL, BYD, LG, Samsung is the baseline. The domestic-content edge is real but conditional — prohibited-foreign-entity rules not final until December, filing flags it as a risk that can delay contracts. On CATL and BYD going vertical? Hasn't meaningfully changed market intensity.
Look, the forwards don't tell the whole story. Analysts flagged weakness in ERCOT and PJM forward prices even as our demand pipeline looked strong. We've argued the forwards undervalue 2028-2029 and beyond — the ERCOT load "isn't yet on the system, it's getting built." We've stayed well hedged and protected against near-term weakness. That's the merchant model: we carry price exposure but capture premium for clean, firm, reliable power under long-term contracts to our owners. The tunnel's real, but the light's visible.