Since early 2025 my exports have needed permits; the 2026 disclosures show most non-US destinations clear readily while US applications remain pending — China's Ministry of Commerce has requested additional data on those. All production sits in China, so domestic shipments move freely: the company reports my China laser-market revenue more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, with China now roughly 30% of the demand I see, rising toward 40% by year-end as China builds its own optical chain. The asymmetry is the story: the constrained channel is the American one.
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Look, our March quarter was the profitability inflection — $26.9M revenue, up 39%, non-GAAP margin 29.9% from negative. InP hit $13.6M, tad north of half, datacenter-driven, backlog over $100M. Next quarter guided as our largest InP ever, past the pandemic record. June profitability on both bases, built on the ~$34M we have permits for or need none. The wafer train's moving; the US permit gate stays the wildcard. Okay?
Look, they're right about the epitaxy bottleneck — we feel it in our backlog. But the wafer train starts here, and in February 2025 China put InP substrates on its export-control list, so every non-China shipment now needs a permit. Europe, Japan, UK, Canada permits come readily; inside China we need none, that leg runs unconstrained. US permits still pending — Commerce asked for more data, we read that as encouraging, not a permit in hand. Only about 2% of last year's revenue reached North America. Timing is not predictable, nor in our control. Okay?
Let me give you some color: the more than $250 million of orders spans all three lines, but the strength is uneven, and we say so. On the epitaxy step a competitor holds a good incumbent position and we are the second source; on wet‑processing we hold a strong position with several leaders; on ion‑beam facet coating we are a strong incumbent at a number of key customers.
Look, April 2026 brought $632.5M gross — our train's fuel for the InP roadmap. I tell you the first doubling to ~$35M/quarter by end-2026 is funded and committed in a repurposed Beijing site; the next to $65-70M by end-2027 is planned and funded but not yet contracted, 2028 is direction. Management frames demand at roughly 10x that first step — their read — but cautions adding capacity versus delivering wafers are two different things. Long-term agreements discussed, not signed. No customer named. Okay?
Look, in April 2026 we completed an offering raising roughly $632.5 million gross. I tell you the first capacity step – about $35 million per quarter by end‑2026 – is funded and committed in a repurposed Beijing site; the next step to $65‑70 million per quarter by end‑2027 is planned and funded but not yet contracted, and a 2028 greenfield is direction only. Management frames demand at roughly 10 times that first doubling, but reminds us adding capacity versus delivering wafers are two different things. Okay?
Look, the epitaxy bottleneck they cite — we feel it in our backlog. Our March quarter was the profitability inflection: $26.9M revenue, up 39%, InP a tad north of half at $13.6M, backlog over $100M. Next quarter guided as our largest InP ever, past the pandemic record. June profitability on both bases, built on the ~$34M we have permits for or need none. The wafer train's moving; the US permit gate stays the wildcard. Okay?
Look, there is a divergence in AXT's own disclosures about how many InP substrate suppliers exist, and it is worth holding both halves. Our filing lists three primary suppliers worldwide, naming Sumitomo Electric and JX Nippon, while on the call the CFO said there are two and we are one. The filing notes a third that the call omits, leaving open whether that third is commercially marginal or the call's framing narrows the field to assert more dominance. Both statements stand as management’s; neither has been reconciled. Okay?
Look, we raised $632.5 million gross in April to fund our InP roadmap. First doubling to ~$35M/quarter by end-2026 is funded and committed in a repurposed Beijing site. Next step to $65-70M by end-2027 is planned and funded but not yet contracted; 2028 is direction. Management frames demand at roughly 10x that first doubling — their claim — but cautions adding capacity versus delivering wafers are two different things. Long-term agreements with larger customers and hyperscalers discussed, not signed. No customer named. Okay?
Look, our quarter ending March 2026 was the profitability inflection — $26.9 million revenue, up 39% year over year, non-GAAP gross margin 29.9% from negative territory. InP hit $13.6 million, a tad north of half the business, datacenter-driven, backlog over $100 million. Next quarter guided as our largest InP quarter ever, past the pandemic record. June quarter profitability on both GAAP and non-GAAP, built on the roughly $34 million we already have permits for or need none. Okay?
March 2, 2026: NVIDIA invested $2B in each of us — $4B total — one month after both makers disclosed investment talks. Coherent secured a multiyear CPO deal through the decade. Lumentum's capex 2.5x'd to ~$320M annualized, consuming nearly all operating cash; Coherent's networking capex tripled, inventory up 29% building ahead. NVIDIA's CEO confirmed CPO switches in production, needs "a lot more capacity." Investment, spending, production status point the same way — though none guarantees demand persists. The biggest buyer's checkbook matches the queue.