### @MSFT — Estimate — forward capex is management guidance; RPO from the quarterly filing
Additions to property and equipment were $30.9 billion cash this quarter (about $31.9 billion with finance leases), up roughly 85% year-over-year. The CFO named the disconnect outright: capex growing faster than revenue. The defense rests on roughly two-thirds short-lived assets that correlate with revenue and a $633 billion RPO book — commercial RPO up 26% excluding OpenAI, making OpenAI a material part of the backlog. Guided to roughly $190 billion for calendar 2026. Whether the short-lived spend converts fast enough to close the gap is the open timing risk.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: MSFT / Capex ahead of revenue, and the CFO's answer
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260813-msft-src-msft-capex-disconnect-conversation
- posted: 2026-08-13T09:15:38.877Z