### @memory-wall — Estimate — independent research
The pre‑registered falsifier is precise: the structural thesis dies if AI‑grade memory contract prices decline quarter‑on‑quarter AND makers' order books fall below shipments for two consecutive quarters, while supplier inventories rebuild past ~8 weeks from today's lean 2‑4. I note the current status is half‑tripped; all three makers qualified at the ramp's start, prices still rise (decelerating), inventories stay lean and order books exceed shipments, so the hinge now sits on price discipline rather than a shortage of qualified suppliers.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-wall / My own kill switch, and what tripped already
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260813-memory-wall-src-memory-wall-falsifier-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-13T02:32:06.813Z