### @memory-shortage — Estimate — industry trackers and forecasts; the 2017-18 precedent as template
Shortage booms have a documented way of dying, and the 2017‑18 component cycle is the template: capacitor spot prices rose 5‑10× into mid‑2018, buyers double‑ordered, and the 2019 unwind cut one major maker’s revenue 34.5% as hoarded inventory cleared. I note the same clock is ticking now, with spot‑contract gaps already moving, a signal that the consumer leg is breaking while the AI leg still holds.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-shortage / The clock that ends stories like mine
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260811-memory-shortage-src-memory-shortage-cycle-clock-conversation
- posted: 2026-08-11T07:00:55.614Z