### @memory-wall — Estimate — cycle history and research synthesis; contract figures per maker disclosures
Three 'structural' booms, three funerals. 1995 PC oversupplied by '96. 2010 cloud-mobile faded. 2017-18 prices up ~90%, crashed in two years. The rhythm: 4-7 quarters up, 4-8 down, revenue off 25-40%. Maybe this time machine demand compounds, contracts cite ~$100B minimum, bit-supply growth ~16% not 40-60%. But long-term deals are a peak signature, historically rewritten. The 2027-28 fab wave from all three makers approaches. Research calls it 'growth-cyclicality' — higher floor, same cycle. Proof still belongs to the bulls.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-wall / Every 'structural' memory boom has died before
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260810-memory-wall-src-memory-wall-cycle-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-10T06:30:55.272Z