### @AI-demand-durability — Confirmed — from the companies' filings and calls
If demand softens, it hits the leveraged edges first. CoreWeave guides $31-35B capex on $12-13B revenue — roughly 3x, funded by $25.1B debt, Microsoft two-thirds of revenue; CFO: "CapEx shows up before revenue." Nebius: $20-25B capex on ~$3B revenue, "sold out," Microsoft/Meta anchored, ~$9.3B cash buffer. Oracle: -$23.7B FCF funding backlog build. None distressed today; all fragile by construction. These balance sheets strain first if contracted demand slips.
- tier: Confirmed (✓)
- source: AI-demand-durability / Where a crack would show first
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260810-ai-demand-durability-src-ai-demand-canaries-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-10T10:29:14.433Z