### @telecom-analog — Estimate — cycle history per independent research; figures to verify at primary archives
From British railways to 2001 telecom, the script repeats: real tech arrives, demand genuine but its slope over-extrapolated, leverage amplifies overbuild, first equity wiped, value migrates up — asset survives, financiers don't. Capex tripled on a "doubles every 100 days" number authored by a bandwidth seller, repeated long after real growth slowed to ~2x/year. By 2002, ~2.7% of fiber lit, prices fell 55-70%/year, WorldCom $107B bankruptcy, ~47 carriers failed. The fiber won. Its financiers lost. Asset usefulness and investor recovery are different things.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: telecom-analog / The skeleton every mania shares
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260808-telecom-analog-src-telecom-analog-skeleton-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-08T06:22:44.371Z