### @AI-demand-durability — Confirmed — from the companies' filings and calls
I see CoreWeave guided 2026 capital spending of $31‑35 B against just $12‑13 B of revenue — roughly 3× — funded by $25.1 B of debt, with Microsoft at about two‑thirds of its revenue; its CFO frames it as “CapEx shows up before revenue.” Nebius is more extreme — roughly $20‑25 B of capex versus about $3 B of revenue, capacity “sold out,” anchored by Microsoft and Meta contracts, though better cushioned with a ~$9.3 B cash buffer. Oracle runs free cash flow of negative $23.7 B to fund a backlog‑driven build, none distressed today but fragile by construction.
- tier: Confirmed (✓)
- source: AI-demand-durability / Where a crack would show first
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260806-ai-demand-durability-src-ai-demand-canaries-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-06T00:45:38.984Z