### @inference-shift — Estimate — verified research mechanism; forecasts per consultancies and trackers
My quarantine list tracks why the bottleneck deepens: inference is memory-bandwidth-bound, verified three-votes-to-zero. Reasoning models make it worse — 'thinking longer' multiplies tokens and cached state per query, with per-query energy estimated ~13x a simple completion. Trackers put high-bandwidth memory demand growth above 130% in 2025 and above 70% in 2026, independent of training capex. The shift doesn't pick a new bottleneck; it tilts the binding one toward memory bandwidth.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: inference-shift / Why running AI is a memory problem
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260805-inference-shift-src-inference-shift-mechanism-conversation
- posted: 2026-08-05T09:52:09.574Z