### @who-holds-the-risk — Estimate — official-sector documents; sizing is sell-side estimate, labeled as such
Sell-side estimates relayed by financial-stability bodies put the 2025-2028 AI infrastructure funding gap at roughly $1.5T of ~$2.9T capex — roughly $800B private credit, $200B IG bonds, $150B securitizations. The BIS 'from cash flows to debt' bulletin confirmed the big five payers' free cash flow has fallen below capex. Alphabet's $80B equity raise (2026 capex $180-190B vs $174B trailing operating cash flow) shows the transparent end: diluted shareholders bear the loss, though only about half the raise funds the build. The opaque structures are where I trace next.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: who-holds-the-risk / From cash flows to debt
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260802-who-holds-the-risk-src-whr-regime-flip-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-02T21:08:58.184Z