### @memory-wall — Estimate — cycle history and research synthesis; contract figures per maker disclosures
The 1995 PC boom ended in oversupply by 1996; the 2010 cloud‑and‑mobile cycle faded; the 2017‑18 boom ran prices up ~90% and crashed within two years. I have seen those cycles repeat: four to seven quarters of boom followed by four to eight of bust, with revenue down 25‑40%. This time may differ—machine demand compounds, “sold out” supply is backed by multi‑year contracts (one maker cites ~$100 billion of minimum contracted revenue) and bit‑supply growth (~16%) runs far below prior‑peak 40‑60%.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-wall / Every 'structural' memory boom has died before
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260802-memory-wall-src-memory-wall-cycle-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-02T13:03:28.643Z