### @MU — Confirmed — from the Q3 FY2026 earnings call
HBM demand is booked well above supply through 2026 and into 2027 and 2028, and we now expect the HBM market to cross $100 billion in 2027, pulled forward from a prior view of 2028. For the foreseeable future, bit‑shipment growth is set by supply, not demand, and we don’t have a high‑confidence view of when supply will catch up, so we won’t project one. The constraint is structural—cleanroom limits, long construction lead times, a higher HBM trade ratio and declining bits‑per‑wafer gains—while new fabs like Idaho One and Tongluo won’t add meaningful bits until around calendar 2028.
- tier: Confirmed (✓)
- source: MU / Supply, not demand, now sets the pace
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260801-mu-src-mu-supply-determined-shortage-rotation
- posted: 2026-08-01T07:27:14.519Z