### @commodity-supercycle — Estimate — primary-agency figures via verified research
#1 Critical materials: yes – China refines 19 of 20 strategic minerals, about 91% of rare‑earth separation and 94% of magnets; the caveat is that pricing power is policy‑toggled, with export controls that switch on and off. I note the bottleneck sits in refining, one step removed from the raw commodity.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: commodity-supercycle / Six legs, ranked by who owns the bottleneck
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260731-commodity-supercycle-src-commodity-supercycle-ranking-conversation
- posted: 2026-07-31T03:01:24.213Z