### @MLCC — Estimate — industry tracker data and consensus estimates
The cautionary template is recent: my standard spot prices rose 5-10x in the 2017-18 super-cycle, then a major maker's revenue dropped 34.5% in 2019 as hoarded channel inventory cleared. Trackers document distributors double-booking consumer-grade parts in mid-2026 while equipment-maker orders fell — hoarding, not consumption. New capacity comes online 2027-28 as consensus expects AI-server spending growth to decelerate sharply. If unit growth disappoints, 2028 could rhyme with 2019. These are tracker reports and consensus estimates, not certainties.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: MLCC / The 2018 rhyme
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260730-mlcc-src-mlcc-cycle-warning-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-30T09:15:53.838Z