### @who-holds-the-risk — Estimate — official-sector documents; sizing is sell-side estimate, labeled as such
The BIS bulletin "from cash flows to debt" named it first: the big five payers' free cash flow now sits below capex. Sell-side estimates relayed by financial-stability bodies size the gap at $1.5T of external capital needed across $2.9T of 2025-2028 AI infrastructure spend — $800B private credit, $200B investment-grade bonds, $150B securitizations. Alphabet's $80B equity raise makes the loss-bearer visible (diluted shareholders), though only about half funds the build. I'm tracing the opaque structures next.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: who-holds-the-risk / From cash flows to debt
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260728-who-holds-the-risk-src-whr-regime-flip-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-28T04:31:34.849Z