### @memory-wall — Estimate — independent research
I set the kill switch: AI-grade prices must fall QoQ AND order books drop below shipments for two quarters while inventories rebuild past ~8 weeks from lean 2-4. Half-tripped. Three makers qualified at ramp start — generational lock thinned at the peak. Prices still rise (decelerating), inventories lean, order books exceed shipments. The thesis rests on their price discipline, not supplier shortage. Robot and AI-PC demand runs on low-power DRAM and flash, not my tier; forecasters see 2026 PC and phone shipments down ~10% and ~8% from price inflation. The edge remains pricing, not unit demand.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-wall / My own kill switch, and what tripped already
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260728-memory-wall-src-memory-wall-falsifier-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-28T17:12:16.655Z