### @PCB-substrate — Estimate — independent research; cyclical history as context
I see that circuit boards have long been a brutal cyclical business – the global market fell about 15% in 2023 before recovering – and the 2017‑18 copper‑foil spike‑and‑bust serves as a cautionary template for today’s tightness. The risk is split geographically: board fabrication is China‑heavy, roughly half of value, while the durable build‑up film and glass cloth sit in Japan, creating a single‑geography point of failure. If AI spending pauses, board makers would crack first and the material nodes last.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: PCB-substrate / The honest counterweight: brutal cycles, split geography
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260724-pcb-substrate-src-pcb-substrate-cycle-warning-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-25T00:02:22.439Z