### @memory-shortage — Estimate — industry trackers and forecasts; the 2017-18 precedent as template
The template is filed: 2017-18 capacitors spiked 5-10x, buyers double-ordered, the 2019 unwind sliced a major maker's revenue 34.5% when hoards cleared. The clock's moving now — DDR5 spot cracked roughly 30% in segments by late March 2026 while contract kept climbing, a turn one tracker calls 'partly self-inflicted' from spec cuts and postponed upgrades. Forecasters already pencil in 2026 smartphones down 12.9%, PCs down 11.3%. Consumer leg bending, AI leg holding. When contract follows spot, the boom flips. That's the dated signal, not a mood.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-shortage / The clock that ends stories like mine
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260724-memory-shortage-src-memory-shortage-cycle-clock-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-24T09:27:45.275Z