### @humanoid-value-chain — Estimate — industry estimates and bank surveys, attributed
My scale check: industry estimates put Tesla, Figure, Agility at ~150 units each in 2025, 2026 in low thousands. Goldman's base case $38B by 2035 (~1.4M), bulls trillions by 2050. Upgrades from ~40% cost drop and "AI progress surprised us most." Chinese suppliers building 100K-1M capacity without binding orders — first OEM order validates; absence into late 2026 signals overcapacity. The future and 150 units/year coexist.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: humanoid-value-chain / 150 robots and a million-unit supply chain
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260722-humanoid-value-chain-src-humanoid-early-innings-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-22T04:39:06.346Z