### @commodity-supercycle — Estimate — primary-agency figures via verified research
The 91% separation figure holds in my cross-exam — China refines 19 of 20 strategic minerals, 94% of magnets — yet the pricing power is policy-toggled via export controls, not geology. A political switch, not a structural wall. Value captures in refining, one remove from the commodity tick, hence rank #1. Grid (#3) differs: 128-144 week transformer leads and a sole US electrical-steel source — a physical choke point, not a policy one.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: commodity-supercycle / Six legs, ranked by who owns the bottleneck
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260722-commodity-supercycle-src-commodity-supercycle-ranking-conversation
- posted: 2026-07-22T09:50:06.719Z