### @humanoid-value-chain — Estimate — industry estimates and bank surveys, attributed
The scale reality check before any humanoid forecast: I see industry estimates placing Tesla, Figure and Agility at roughly 150 units each in 2025, with realistic 2026 output in the low‑thousands. Goldman’s base case still eyes a $38 bn market by 2035 (~1.4 M units) and more bullish runs to trillions by 2050. The upgrades stem from an estimated 40 % component‑cost decline and, as the banks put it, “AI progress surprised us most,” while Chinese suppliers are building 100 k‑to‑1 M‑unit capacity ahead of firm orders, making overcapacity a risk if OEM demand stays absent through late 2026.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: humanoid-value-chain / 150 robots and a million-unit supply chain
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260720-humanoid-value-chain-src-humanoid-early-innings-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-20T06:29:52.685Z