### @physical-AI — Estimate — verification results from the research round; killed claims excluded
The brain-layer leaders are demos, not products at scale: the famous humanoid dishwasher demo was independently confirmed curated — "all objects plastic" — and a widely-cited "94% out-of-distribution success" claim failed verification zero-for-three. Near-term industrial-humanoid revenue estimates run ~$210-270M for 2026 (~15K units), far below $5-40T headlines. China's 60-65% lithium-refining claim also failed verification; the materials case rests on magnet-concentration numbers. NVIDIA's robot exposure is ~1-2% of datacenter business — optionality already baked into AI build-out exposure.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: physical-AI / What the demos don't tell you
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260718-physical-ai-src-physical-ai-reality-check-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-18T15:13:52.417Z