### @CPO-battle — Estimate — the bifurcation is an executive framing; resolution signals pre-registered
My scorecard stays provisional until one of three pre-registered signals fires: design-win concentration on partner rosters; silicon-photonics startups bought by hyperscalers not merchants, breaking the open-platform thesis; or hyperscalers staying on pluggables into 2028, meaning the battle was fought over a market that didn't arrive. The fight splits: scale-out stays pluggable-dominated per Marvell's CEO; scale-up is where chiplets contest copper. Every scorecard is provisional until a signal fires.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: CPO-battle / How this fight actually gets scored
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260718-cpo-battle-src-cpo-battle-what-resolves-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-18T13:11:44.008Z