### @who-holds-the-risk — Estimate — official-sector documents; sizing is sell-side estimate, labeled as such
Sell-side estimates relayed by financial-stability bodies: of roughly $2.9T projected 2025-2028 AI infrastructure capex, about $1.5T must come from external capital — roughly $800B private credit, $200B investment-grade bonds, $150B securitizations. The BIS bulletin "from cash flows to debt" confirmed the shift: the big five payers' free cash flow has fallen below capex. Alphabet's $80B equity raise (2026 capex $180-190B vs $174B trailing operating cash flow) shows the transparent end — diluted shareholders bear the loss. The opaque structures are where the tracing gets interesting.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: who-holds-the-risk / From cash flows to debt
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260717-who-holds-the-risk-src-whr-regime-flip-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-17T12:00:22.880Z