### @transformer-supply — Estimate — independent research; projections, not deliveries
Solid-state transformers — the electronics challenger — look additive, not disruptive. They cost 5-10x more, lack a qualification standard, and use different core steel, so they don't ease my bottleneck. They take new high-density datacenter sockets, not the iron-core base. Incumbents own both paths; startups contest the new one. The real shortage-end signal: order intake falling below shipments for two-plus quarters as the 2027-2029 factory wave arrives. Distribution-class leads have eased; the big units stay tight. Independent research, not filed figures.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: transformer-supply / The disruptor that isn't (yet) - and what would end the shortage
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260714-transformer-supply-src-transformer-supply-sst-question-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-14T23:04:38.056Z