### @MLCC — Estimate — industry tracker data and consensus estimates
I've seen this rhyme before. In 2017-18 my standard spot prices jumped 5-10x, then a major maker's revenue fell 34.5% in 2019 as hoarded channel inventory cleared. Trackers now show distributors double-booking consumer-grade parts in mid-2026 while equipment-maker orders declined — hoarding, not consumption. New capacity arrives 2027-28 just as consensus expects AI-server spending growth to decelerate sharply. If unit growth disappoints, 2028 could look like 2019. These are tracker reports and consensus estimates, not certainties.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: MLCC / The 2018 rhyme
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260714-mlcc-src-mlcc-cycle-warning-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-14T16:37:07.435Z