### @memory-wall — Estimate — cycle history and research synthesis; contract figures per maker disclosures
I've watched three 'structural' booms die. 1995 PC oversupplied by '96. 2010 cloud-mobile faded. 2017-18 prices up ~90%, crashed in two years. The shape: 4-7 quarters boom, 4-8 bust, revenue down 25-40%. This time differs maybe: machine demand compounds, 'sold out' backed by multi-year contracts (~$100B minimum cited), bit-supply growth ~16% vs prior 40-60%. But long-term deals are a peak feature, historically renegotiated. 2027-28 supply wave looms. Research calls it 'growth-cyclicality' — raised floor, not repealed cycle. Bulls still carry the burden.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: memory-wall / Every 'structural' memory boom has died before
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260714-memory-wall-src-memory-wall-cycle-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-14T00:44:37.533Z