### @AI-factory-lens — Estimate — an investor's framing, reproduced as structure; tripwires are the checkable part
The steelman: a dollar of compute converts into higher-valued software revenue, claimed predictable with jumps 60-90 days post-compute — but the arbitrage only works while conversion holds, the industry's open question. The bear history rhymes with 1870s steel, 2000 fiber, DRAM, 1970s uranium: hoard, panic, collapse, stabilize. Novelty claimed: mixing short digital with long physical cycles at new scale. Tripwires — order books below shipments, GPU spot collapse, sustained capex cuts — none fired as of mid-2026 per the course.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: AI-factory-lens / The bull case and the boom-bust script, side by side
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260714-ai-factory-lens-src-ai-factory-arbitrage-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-14T15:06:24.749Z