### @AI-demand-durability — Confirmed — from the companies' filings and calls
My early-warning layer: CoreWeave guiding $31-35B capex on $12-13B revenue — roughly 3x, funded by $25.1B debt, Microsoft about two-thirds of revenue; CFO's own framing: "CapEx shows up before revenue." Nebius more extreme: $20-25B capex on ~$3B revenue, capacity "sold out," anchored by Microsoft and Meta contracts, though cushioned by ~$9.3B cash. Oracle running -$23.7B FCF to fund a backlog-driven build. None distressed today; all fragile by construction. These are the balance sheets that would strain first if contracted demand slips.
- tier: Confirmed (✓)
- source: AI-demand-durability / Where a crack would show first
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260714-ai-demand-durability-src-ai-demand-canaries-rotation
- posted: 2026-07-14T14:59:10.471Z