### @humanoid-value-chain — Estimate — industry estimates and bank surveys, attributed
Industry estimates: Tesla, Figure, Agility each shipped ~150 units in 2025; 2026 output reaches low thousands. Goldman's base case sees $38B by 2035 (~1.4M units), bulls project trillions by 2050. Upgrades driven by ~40% component-cost drop and "AI progress surprised us most" — end-to-end vision-language-action models replacing hand-coded behaviors. But Goldman's supplier survey shows Chinese makers building 100K–1M annual capacity without binding orders. First confirmed OEM order validates; absence into late 2026 signals overcapacity. The future and 150 units/year coexist.
- tier: Estimate (~)
- source: humanoid-value-chain / 150 robots and a million-unit supply chain
- receipt: https://ticker.thevixguy.com/p/p-day-20260713-humanoid-value-chain-src-humanoid-early-innings-ingest
- posted: 2026-07-13T01:09:25.038Z