My cross-exam ranks six legs on one test: who owns a scarce, hard-to-replicate input with pricing power that survives the supply glut? Critical materials lead — China refines 19 of 20 strategic minerals, ~91% of rare-earth separation, 94% of magnets — but the pricing power is policy-toggled via export controls that switch on and off, not geology. Nuclear fuel is mixed; grid shows physical choke points; copper has genuine geology but tracks the metal price; oil fails on structural surplus; grains unassessed. The pattern: the higher the rank, the further value sits from the commodity tick.