The discipline organizing my cross-exam: a commodity supercycle is a capital-spending cycle, and prices flatten then collapse when induced supply arrives — 1986 and 2014 the templates. Durable value sits in rare-earth separation chemistry and grid equipment, where pricing power isn't commodity-tied. But the bottleneck rests on export-control policy that toggles on and off, and a US price floor shielding a domestic champion from a Chinese price collapse — protection proving the flood risk. Open question: does gear pricing power survive once ordered capacity delivers?