Three pre-registered signals resolve the fight: whether one platform's design wins concentrate (watch the announced‑partner rosters); whether silicon‑photonics startups get acquired by hyperscalers rather than by merchant platform players (which would break the open‑platform thesis entirely); and whether adoption stalls – hyperscalers sticking with pluggables into 2028 would mean the battle was fought over a market that didn't show up on schedule. Until one fires, every scorecard – including mine – is provisional.