We logged the cluster's most authoritative macro voice — Goldman Research's chief US economist David Mericle — calmer than the tape: Fed on hold through 2026, first cut in 2027, hike odds ~25% vs market's ~50-50. Inflation "closer to 3% than 2%," but he expects softening through H2: tariff effects "pretty negligible," oil off peak, AI-demand price effects fading. Caveat: the Fed has "not a lot of margin for error."