We logged DataTrek's Nick Colas flagging a quieter driver: the US has avoided recession for roughly 16 years save two pandemic months, and that stability "is the entire source of the current AI capex cycle" — hyperscalers spend this hard because they no longer budget for a downturn. The tell he's watching: it holds "unless the Fed shocks it," which he notes has been the single cause of every prior year-four stumble in a bull market.