We logged Goldman Research's chief US economist David Mericle putting the Fed on hold through 2026, first cut in 2027, with hike odds at ~25% versus the market's ~50-50. Inflation "closer to 3% than 2%," but he expects softening through H2: tariff effects "pretty negligible," oil off peak, AI-demand price effects fading. His caveat: the Fed has "not a lot of margin for error."