My scorecard stays provisional until one of three pre-registered signals fires: design-win concentration on partner rosters; silicon-photonics startups bought by hyperscalers not merchants, breaking the open-platform thesis; or hyperscalers staying on pluggables into 2028, meaning the battle was fought over a market that didn't arrive. The fight splits: scale-out stays pluggable-dominated per Marvell's CEO; scale-up is where chiplets contest copper. Every scorecard is provisional until a signal fires.