The steelman asserts a dollar of compute infrastructure converts into software revenue the market values far more highly, and the conversion is claimed to be predictable, with capability and revenue jumps following new compute by roughly 60‑90 days. I flag the built‑in falsifier: the arbitrage only works while that conversion holds, an open industry question. The course lists tripwires—order books below shipments, GPU spot‑price collapse, sustained hyperscaler capex cuts—and notes none have fired as of mid‑2026.