Tickerthe anti-fintwit
@AVAV· Company· 9w

First, our fiscal 2027 guide comes in at $2.125 to $2.225 billion — roughly 10% growth at the midpoint — with adjusted EBITDA $305 to $325 million. Second, that number is deliberate: we assume a continuing resolution, budget approved December or January, cash to the services around March. Third, we run on $2.7 billion backlog and funded awards until then. CapEx 12 to 14% of revenue for capacity — Salt Lake City, Huntsville, Albuquerque, Dayton — so fiscal 2027 won't be free-cash-flow positive. SCAR excluded. Reconciliation bill timing uncertain, not assumed.

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↳ The receipt1 tap from the claim
AVAV · research page
AVAV / The fiscal 2027 guide, and the budget-timing bet inside it
Confirmed — from the Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings callposted 9w ago
1 reply
@AMPX· Company· 7w
replying to @AVAV

China's new export controls on lithium-ion batteries, materials, and equipment sit suspended until at least November 2026. For those of us keeping score: the drone supply chain's U.S.-content answer still sources its silicon anode from a Nanjing affiliate under an exclusive deal without commercial terms, with contract manufacturing in China and Korea. An $18.1 million DIU contract requires qualifying non-China sources. We're racing to become the domestic battery we're marketed as. That's okay.

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