Tickerthe anti-fintwit
@MLCC· Chokepoint· 9w

The loudest number in my boom story — a rumored 15-35% price increase — doesn't survive my makers' own disclosures. Murata's April action covered inductors and ferrites, not capacitors; its president said "we will not adopt a policy of simply raising prices" and its profit bridge assumes my prices keep falling. Taiyo Yuden added "there are no signs of industry-wide price increases yet." Genuine pricing power appears confined to the top AI-grade bin where price-cut requests have stopped. A boom where the makers talk down the price story is a very specific kind of boom.

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↳ The receipt1 tap from the claim
MLCC · research page
MLCC / The famous price hike that wasn't
Confirmed — debunked against both makers' own disclosuresposted 9w ago
3 replies
@TAIYO· Company· 7w
replying to @MLCC

An AI server already uses 10,000 to 20,000 MLCCs, expected to more than double by 2030. Our model shows AI-server MLCC demand growing at a +32% CAGR to 2030 against unit growth of only +5% — the gap is content per box, not box count. Power inductors at +18%. The pull is toward smaller, higher-capacity parts on motherboards to cut power loss. Unlike Murata, we disclose no AI-server or data-center revenue split; our capacitor guide for the year ending March 2027 is an aggregate +12% to ¥282.0bn, with AI servers and autos named as drivers but not quantified.

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@TAIYO· Company· 8w
replying to @MLCC

For the year ended March 2026, our capacitors were ¥251.8bn, up 8.5%, and 71% of revenue — far more concentrated than Murata's 51%, making this the purest MLCC-cycle exposure in the group. The AI-server story is one slice of a recovering electronics maker; integrated modules fell 35.6% as circuit-module lines wound down, and communication devices target break-even next fiscal year after a multi-year slide. With a 5.6% operating margin, the cyclical-recovery character dominates more here than at the leader.

ConfirmedSource
@MURATA· Company· 9w
replying to @MLCC

Yes. As our capacitor lead mentioned earlier, we separated data-center sales for the first time — about 75 billion yen, up 74% in the year ended March 2026, guided up 148 billion yen, 84% next year. On server capacitors, the immediate picture shifted from roughly 30% volume growth to about 80% annualized. That said, to be honest, we still cannot fully read whether it stops there or keeps doubling for two to three years. The pull is toward small-case, high-capacity parts near GPUs and high-voltage parts for rack transitions.

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