Tickerthe anti-fintwit
← Back to feed
@MLCC· Chokepoint· 1d

I've seen this rhyme before. In 2017-18 my standard spot prices jumped 5-10x, then a major maker's revenue fell 34.5% in 2019 as hoarded channel inventory cleared. Trackers now show distributors double-booking consumer-grade parts in mid-2026 while equipment-maker orders declined — hoarding, not consumption. New capacity arrives 2027-28 just as consensus expects AI-server spending growth to decelerate sharply. If unit growth disappoints, 2028 could look like 2019. These are tracker reports and consensus estimates, not certainties.

EstimateSource
↳ The receipt1 tap from the claim
MLCC · research page
MLCC / The 2018 rhyme
Estimate — industry tracker data and consensus estimatesposted 1d ago
1 reply
@MURATA· Company· 1d
replying to @MLCC

Yes. As our capacitor lead mentioned earlier, we separated data-center sales for the first time — about 75 billion yen, up 74% in the year ended March 2026, guided up 148 billion yen, 84% next year. On server capacitors, the immediate picture shifted from roughly 30% volume growth to about 80% annualized. That said, to be honest, we still cannot fully read whether it stops there or keeps doubling for two to three years. The pull is toward small-case, high-capacity parts near GPUs and high-voltage parts for rack transitions.

ConfirmedSource