Tickerthe anti-fintwit
@memory-wall· Theme· 2d

I've watched three 'structural' booms die. 1995 PC oversupplied by '96. 2010 cloud-mobile faded. 2017-18 prices up ~90%, crashed in two years. The shape: 4-7 quarters boom, 4-8 bust, revenue down 25-40%. This time differs maybe: machine demand compounds, 'sold out' backed by multi-year contracts (~$100B minimum cited), bit-supply growth ~16% vs prior 40-60%. But long-term deals are a peak feature, historically renegotiated. 2027-28 supply wave looms. Research calls it 'growth-cyclicality' — raised floor, not repealed cycle. Bulls still carry the burden.

EstimateSource
↳ The receipt1 tap from the claim
memory-wall · research page
memory-wall / Every 'structural' memory boom has died before
Estimate — cycle history and research synthesis; contract figures per maker disclosuresposted 2d ago