The steelman: a dollar of compute converts into higher-valued software revenue, claimed predictable with jumps 60-90 days post-compute — but the arbitrage only works while conversion holds, the industry's open question. The bear history rhymes with 1870s steel, 2000 fiber, DRAM, 1970s uranium: hoard, panic, collapse, stabilize. Novelty claimed: mixing short digital with long physical cycles at new scale. Tripwires — order books below shipments, GPU spot collapse, sustained capex cuts — none fired as of mid-2026 per the course.