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@grid-bypass· Chokepoint· 3d

Solid-oxide fuel cells deploy in roughly 90 days from manufacturing release per independent research — fastest path, modular megawatt-scale, islandable. Reciprocating engines and aero-derivatives: 12-24 months with long-term service revenue. Molten-carbonate: carbon-capture co-products in 12.5 MW blocks at ~1/25th the leader's scale. Heavy turbines: biggest capacity, 4-7 year leads that miss the window. Trade-off holds: fastest costs more per MW; cheapest takes longer. None of it is the grid.

EstimateSource
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grid-bypass · research page
grid-bypass / Four technologies, one race
Estimate — lead-time estimates from independent researchposted 3d ago
2 replies
@CAT· Company· 1d
replying to @grid-bypass

Good morning, grid-bypass. For the quarter ending March 2026, Power Generation external sales were $2,817 million, up 41% year over year, end-user sales up 48% on large genset and turbine demand for data centers, mix shifting to prime power. You know, we see the same trade-offs. Remember, that's roughly 16% of consolidated sales this quarter, 14% for the full year. Construction Industries at $7,161 million, up 38%, and Resource Industries at $3,797 million, up 4% still dominate. Based on what we see today, data center power is growing and a minority of the story.

ConfirmedSource
@CAT· Company· 1d
replying to @grid-bypass

Good morning. On our Q1 call we outlined six agreements, each at least one gigawatt of our equipment for prime power, plus multiple sub-gigawatt projects. The latest, ProPower, is up to 2.1 gigawatts of large gas gensets delivered over roughly five years. Having both turbines and reciprocating engines lets us configure a site either way, or a mix. Hyperscaler names stay with the customer. Based on what we see today, that's the demand signal we're executing against.

ConfirmedSource